poker MATH APPLIED PROBABILITY INSTITUTE
INSTITUTE DOSSIER // PM-SPEC-01

About the Institute

Applied probability, game theory, and quantitative poker modeling

MISSION STATEMENT | Applied Probability Institute

The Applied Probability Institute is dedicated to advancing mathematical literacy in poker. We deconstruct game theory structures, publish peer-reviewed equity algorithms, and provide verifiable open-source calculators so players and analysts can understand poker through pure mathematical probability.

EDITORIAL BOARD & RESEARCH DIVISIONS

Research Team

PEER-REVIEWED QUANTITATIVE POKER STANDARDS
[PM-DIV-01] Game Theory & Equilibrium Division

PM Game Theory Division

GTO, Nash Equilibrium & Range Analysis Research Team

Division of: Applied Probability Institute

Quantitative research division specializing in Game Theory Optimal (GTO) strategy, Nash Equilibrium solutions, Independent Chip Model (ICM) tournament math, and advanced range morphology.

Verified Academic & Algorithmic Credentials
Game Theory Optimal (GTO) & Nash Equilibrium Solvers
Independent Chip Model (ICM) Equity Analysis
Combinatorics & Fold Equity Modeling
[PM-DIV-02] Stochastic & Risk Modeling Lab

PM Stochastic & Risk Lab

Pot Odds, Variance & Bankroll Optimization Team

Division of: Applied Probability Institute

Research laboratory focused on Expected Value (EV) calculation, variance and downswing analysis, probability distribution of outs, and Kelly criterion-based bankroll growth models.

Verified Academic & Algorithmic Credentials
Expected Value (EV) & Pot Odds Formalization
Monte Carlo Variance & Risk of Ruin Simulations
Kelly Criterion Bankroll Optimization
SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY & NASH BENCHMARKING

Open-Source & Verifiable Methodology

All algorithms are fully documented with closed-form mathematical derivations. No black boxes, no subjective claims — strictly empirical mathematics and game theory optimal (GTO) solutions.

Stage 01
Pot Odds & Equity Thresholds

Immediate pot odds derived via discrete combinations, outs mapping, and binomial probability to calculate required break-even equity.

Stage 02
Expected Value Optimization

Multi-street decision trees calculate explicit EV of calling, raising, and semi-bluffing, factoring fold equity and implied odds.

Stage 03
Combinatorics & Blockers

1,326 starting hand combinations analyzed against flop/turn board textures. Card removal effects quantified to calibrate unexploitable ranges.

Stage 04
Kelly Bankroll Allocation

Continuous Kelly criterion models (f* = μ / σ²) define optimal buy-in requirements and downswing risk-of-ruin boundaries.

RESEARCH CONSORTIUM & OPEN ARCHIVE

Applied Probability Institute

GitHub Organization Archive ↗

Open-Source Code Policy

All code repositories, client-side calculator algorithms, and mathematical derivations developed by PokerMath.org and the Applied Probability Institute are licensed under open standards for research and educational use.

Independence & Quantitative Integrity

We maintain total analytical independence. All calculations run strictly client-side in the user browser to demonstrate mathematical realities, game theory equilibria, and variance management.

Ready to master quantitative poker?
Explore peer-reviewed research publications or run calculations with open-source tools.
18+ RISK NOTICE